Some remarks regarding Kuartal’s current focus on the gold market

Hello everyone — I have been getting a lot of questions about the recent run in gold, so here’s my personal current take on the markets on why Kuartal has been slowly increasing its stockpile of gold from November 2025. 

What’s Happened So Far

Gold isn’t just ticking up — it’s absolutely exploded. Prices recently moved above $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history, with gains of well over 15–20% already in 2026 after a massive rally in 2025. Investors are calling it one of the biggest surges we’ve seen since the 1970s.

A few key drivers:

• Geopolitical uncertainty: Escalating tensions globally are pushing capital into perceived safe havens.
• Central bank buying: Nations — led by China and other emerging markets — are accumulating gold to diversify reserves.
• Weaker U.S. dollar: A softer USD makes gold more attractive to foreign holders and boosts demand.
• ETF inflows & investor demand: Gold ETFs are seeing significant net inflows, underlining investor appetite.

This isn’t just a one-off shock — it’s structural demand meeting strong macro forces.

What Analysts Say About the Near Future

Here’s where it gets interesting because forecasts vary but the consensus is “bullish”:

Bullish Forecasts:

• Goldman Sachs now expects gold to climb even higher by the end of 2026 — potentially toward $5,400/oz — on ongoing reserve diversification and safe-haven demand.
• J.P. Morgan sees sustained pricing that could keep gold around the current elevated levels through year-end, with longer-term upside toward ~$6,000.
• World Gold Council & other industry voices project continued gains in 2026 — possibly another 5–15% — if geopolitical and monetary conditions stay supportive.

Why it could keep going:

• Lower real interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
• Sustained central bank purchases act as a relatively price-insensitive bid.

So, from a strategic standpoint, the tailwinds remain intact.

Risks & What Could Stop the Rally

Gold isn’t a one-way trade. A few scenarios that could trigger volatility:

1. Fed Policy Shifts
If the Federal Reserve signals tighter monetary policy or unexpected rate hikes, gold could correct as real yields rise.

2. Dollar Strength
A stronger USD often drags commodity prices lower, including gold.

3. Profit-Taking & Overextension
Ultra-sharp rallies can attract short-term profit-taking or technical pullbacks even in an overall uptrend.

4. Reduced Fear Narrative
If geopolitical risk recedes and risk assets rally, investors might rotate out of gold.

Bottom line: gold might remain elevated but prices could be choppy. Corrections shouldn’t be seen as the end of the trend — just part of normal market behavior.

So Where Might Prices Be in the Next 6–12 Months?

Here’s what we here at Kuartal believe to be a reasonable range of expectations based on current data and institutional forecasts:

 Just a reminder: forecasts aren’t guarantees — think of them as probability clouds, not fixed targets.

Takeaways for Kuartal Community Members and Investors

• Gold is no longer just a hedge; it’s acting like a macro asset driven by central banks, real rates, and global policy uncertainty.
• Strong fundamentals support continued higher price levels, though corrections along the way are normal.
• If you’re allocating capital here, consider how gold fits with your risk tolerance, time horizon, and overall portfolio goals.

So that has kind of been our thesis here at Kuartal on why we’re deleveraging from a lot of our positions in both the Indonesian and U.S. markets to create a bigger safety net for any future drawdowns that might come our way for the next four to five years. But what do you think — are we in a long-term gold bull market or near a blowoff top? Let’s discuss.

Signed,
Diemas Sukma Hawkins
Founder & CEO